Flashpoint 2025
Christian Nationalists are planning a rally in Seattle's historic queer neighborhood. A local coalition is rising to protest against them. The outcome could quickly raise the political temperature.
Temperature Check
It's been a rough year. The resistance to the new administration is moving slowly. It's unclear whether the current effort is having any impact.
Protests have been staged against the firing of federal workers, the genocide in Gaza, deportations and renditons under ICE, and the pending cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. These protests have remained fairly liberal in their composition and have used powerful, sometimes heated language to convey urgency while remaining peaceful.
For the most part, law enforcement has been willing to stand back and let the movement run its course. ICE continues its mission facing setbacks, but no real defeat. The White House likewise executes its agenda uninterrupted in the long run. Elected officials around the country weigh costs and benefits, hesitant to give up their negotiating power by taking a side; exceptions among them stand out, but not enough to turn the tide. The public across the spectrum watches, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Extraordinarily motivated groups and individuals nationwide are putting in hard work — real work — but the next stage of conflict is still a few rungs up the ladder of escalation from where we currently sit.
All of this is is subject to change after May 24th, when a right-wing Christian organization is coming to Seattle on the next leg of its nationwide tour to bring in money, publicity, and new followers.
The Event
Touting the slogan, "Don't Mess With Our Kids," an organization calling itself Mayday USA is calling for supporters to rally in Seattle on the 24th to "stand for our kids, their rights, and their futures" and join a campaign for "the SANCTITY of human life, the SACRALITY of biological gender, the IMPORTANCE of the nuclear family, and the RIGHT to freedom of religion."1
The event promises speeches by prominent community figures, group prayer, spiritual healing, merchandise, and bizarrely, free haircuts for kids.
It should come as no surprise that the groups backing Mayday USA are evangelical organizations, nor that some of them appear to be using the opportunity to enrich themselves.
The Organizer
The host of the lead organization behind Mayday USA, Jenny Donnelly, is a resident of Portland, Oregon, and an advocate for so-called parental rights. As expected, her platform conflates abortion with murder, gender-affirming care with mutilation, and the nuclear family with "the foundation of a healthy nation". One section specifically cites Christian conservative manifestos such as the 2009 Manhattan Declaration and the 2016 Lima Declaration.2
A former distributor for the AdvoCare multi-level marketing scheme,3 Donnelly went on to create the Her Voice Movement in December 2017. HVM is an organization professing to be "committed to freeing the voices of women so they can turn their families and America back to God."4 Rather than a heel-face turn, this appears to have been a pivot to a new money-making strategy.
On the website for Her Voice Movement, visitors are directed to buy into a range of video lectures and "join the HVM family circle" by donating a "financial seed" to "produce a great harvest for the Kingdom of God". Suggested contributions range from $1,200 per year to $50,000 per year.5 Besides swag and networking opportunities, there is no clear indication where this money goes.
Mayday USA's homepage reflects similar enticing, yet vague, promises of influence in exchange for a sizeable contribution: "700 partners giving $1k each will FUND MAYDAY!"
Whether this tour has yielded Donnelly's desired results is debatable. So far, they've made stops in New York City, Miami, and Houston. According to @SometimesPDX, a Portland-based watchdog account on BlueSky, attendance at the event in Miami numbered no more than 250.67 Houston drew a slightly larger crowd — between 300 to 4008 — but the visibility of the tour has apparently not reached very far beyond Donnelly's immediate online ecosystem. In both Miami and Houston, the rallies appeared to be modest gatherings in the vein of a Christian-themed festival or block party.
Nevertheless, emergent factors in Washington could buck that trend. Key among these is one factor that New York, Miami, and Houston do not have: former state legislator and domestic terrorist Matt Shea.
The Crusader
Shea's activities have been extensively documented, with highlights such as his distribution of an outline titled Biblical Basis for War,9 his interactions with the Bundy standoff and the Malheur occupation, and his links to the far-right militia Oath Keepers.10 While he denies accusations of being a domestic terrorist, his personal website does not refute any of these facts.
It's apparent that his religious beliefs have found common ground with Jenny Donnelly. Shea's church in Spokane, On Fire Ministries, lists the upcoming rally in Seattle on their event calendar.11 On May 6, the Instagram account for On Fire Ministries shared a promotional video from Mayday USA's press kit with the caption "Gen Z is rising — bold, unashamed, and standing for faith, freedom, and family."12
This mirrors a wider acceptance and support for Her Voice Movement across the country. Donnelly's push for more Christian women on school boards, city councils, and other elected bodies received praise and significant financial contributions from the likes of Ziklag, a group of wealthy donors pursuing a Christian Dominionist agenda in various elections across the country.13
Whether the partnership between Donnelly and Shea is one of convenience, or instead something more lasting, is irrelevant to the moment at hand. Shea's connections to the more defiant right-wing elements in the Pacific Northwest, both covert and overt, are enough to give pause to most moderate individuals on both the right and left. Following in the footsteps of the Trump effect, Shea's decision to endorse Mayday USA may be unsavory to those who would otherwise agree with the platform. Of course, conservatives of a more radical persuasion are just as likely to flock to Seattle, thirsty for a fight.
The Resistance
Depending on the mood, they may well get one. Cal Anderson Park is the venue for Saturday's event, and is situated in the heart of the Capitol Hill neighborhood. The district is known for its thriving queer community and raucous night life. The park itself is notable both in Seattle and beyond as the site of many of the local Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, including the contentious Capitol Hill Occupied Protest. If CHOP was any indication, the prevailing culture of the neighborhood and of leftist activism in Seattle will make an occupation of Cal Anderson Park by the Christian right intolerable to many.
Leftists who are looking for a place to make a stand will undoubtedly feel a need to show up and counter-protest. The diversity of the city and the region's cadre of activists means a diversity of tactics will be on display. Most will be aware of the obvious provocation of the event. The moment seems ripe with opportunities for grifters in the conservative media ecosystem to spin photo and video evidence in their favor. For risk-averse locals, presenting a united front that can both literally and figuratively drown out their opponent is perhaps the best option.
But the real question is how many on the left are unwilling to play games of five-dimensional chess. Rather than debate each other to death over the optics of various protest methods, some factions mobilizing to counter-protest will see the dynamic as a test of Seattle's resolve. Within such groups are people prepared to engage in more disruptive acts to deny Christian Dominionists a foothold.
It's unpleasant to consider direct action escalating at a time when things are already fraught. Yet in the broader scheme, the calculation has merit. Returning to the rally organizers for a moment, it's clear their motive is to use the rally as a kind of stalking-horse: should resistance to the event prove overwhelming, Mayday USA will probably be dissolved shortly after the tour concludes. Donnelly and Shea will continue their efforts, although they may search for support elsewhere.
On the other hand, if Mayday USA's rally draw a larger crowd of supporters than counter-protestors, or if tensions flare into physical action in a way that is strategically useful to a Dominionist agenda, the component factions backing Mayday USA would unquestionably feel encouraged to build on their success in the region.
It's easy to see why counter-protestors would abandon respectability politics, in favor of straightforward tactics that offer material gains. For leftists who count themselves as part of migrant, student, Black, or queer communities, the sense of urgency is only growing.
The Police
Another element that's always a safe bet is the tendency for police to insert themselves into any situation they deem unsafe. Mayday USA's event is officially permitted by the City of Seattle, and the Seattle Police Department would be fools not to pay attention.
There exists some ambiguity as to whether SPD would exercise restraint against groups of angry counter-protestors, or be proactive in preventing spin doctors and militia types from stirring up a frenzy, but it's slim. Like many police departments, SPD are incredibly protective of their monopoly on violence. A federal consent decree handed down by the Department of Justice in 2012 prohibited use of force under certain conditions. Yet SPD has continued to exercise poor judgment at best, and maliciously brutalize the average citizen at worst.141516
The odds get even worse considering the department has the highest number of police officers out of any in the nation that participated in the January 6th insurrection.1718 But instead of characterizing their response as merely siding with either right or left, a more material focus is the extent to which SPD is willing to compromise the city's trust as a whole, in favor of currying support from the federal government and the grassroots right.
Insofar as they have consciously considered it, where the opinions of individual officers fall on this spectrum of trust versus power is as significant as the posture of the department itself. Helmed by an interim police chief and unused to taking severe disciplinary action, SPD could find itself in the position of playing catch-up in the PR game if a handful of officers take matters into their own hands on Saturday.
The City
As if all that wasn't enough, Mayor of Seattle Bruce Harrell and the City Council also have a distinct role to play. Naturally this has significance for those of us here in Seattle, but it feels especially relevant on the federal level.
Trump has often weaponized the optics of blue cities in chaos for his agenda. The Insurrection Act has faced intense scrutiny since his re-election, but his consideration of implenting it was initially reported on June 1, 2020, following the rapid increase in civil unrest across the country.
On June 11, at the height of CHOP, he posted a tweet reading, "Radical Left Governor @JayInslee and the Mayor of Seattle are being taunted and played at a level that our great Country has never seen before. Take back your city NOW. If you don’t do it, I will. This is not a game. These ugly Anarchists must be stopped IMMEDIATELY. MOVE FAST!"19
When the city of Portland, Oregon, began clashing with police and national guard on a nightly basis, Trump reinforced this threat. His signing of an executive order promised to protect federal buildings with federal agents, and charge those arrested with federal crimes.20 Protests in Portland at the time centered on the federal courthouse,21 which meant this order targeted the city in all but name.
If and when Saturday's face-off turns spicy, Seattle city officials will be faced with pressure on all sides: from both groups of activists to denounce the other, from the police to let them do their jobs and restore order, and from the White House to fix the city before federal agents come and fix it for them.
It seems a foregone conclusion that the City of Seattle would follow the path of least resistance, folding like clean laundry to appear good for business and tough on crime. While the recent arrest of Mayor Ras Baraka at an ICE facility in New Jersey casts some doubt on this, the moderate politicians in office in Seattle have not been so bold in the past. Mayor Harrell has commented in the past that while he understood the risks faced by certain communities where ICE is involved, he also has promised that "The city has and will continue to follow state and federal laws that govern local law enforcement interaction with the federal government."22
Perhaps pessimistically, it would follow that Mayor Harrell's stance on ICE activities would extend to a broader law enforcement intervention by the White House. After all, the Mayor and the Council have a public image to maintain. If they can't please everyone, they might just spring for pleasing the loudest, most unpleasant voices in the room.
Conclusion
I have to admit the subject of how this all plays out falls into the realm of speculative fiction. No single person can account for every single piece that's in play. What's important, though, is that folks on the ground at these events understand the drive behind the disparate factions, and how it's reflected in dynamics playing out in municipal, state, and national power struggles. If the dominoes start to fall and things get chaotic, the competing motivations and risk analyses, and the allegiances they build, can change overnight. The spread of information itself can get out of hand as perspective on the aftermath becomes increasingly polarized. Referring back to CHOP as we approach its five-year anniversary, few today can agree on the mere facts, let alone who is to blame.
There's an incredibly widespread tendency to paint politics in the U.S. with a broad brush. All leftists are communists or anarchists ready to burn their collective home to the ground in exchange for a week or a day of free reign. Christofascists will back the federal government come hell or high water. The interests of the state and its law enforcement are never in conflict and can never be thwarted. Such assumptions are false and have been proven so repeatedly both at home and abroad, both in recent times and historically. In the end, the one certainty is that nothing is for certain.
Daily life in the region may not change significantly if the Insurrection Act is invoked following Mayday USA. The possibility of Humvees patrolling a major city is daunting, but without minimizing the risks of a military occupation, there's also a possibility it doesn't work much differently than when the patrolling is done by police-model Ford Explorers. As a matter of fact, cops in the U.S. have been criticized for being more trigger-happy, and are held less accountable, than the average American soldier deployed to a war zone.
On the other hand, depending on who feels emboldened and who feels at risk, things could get dangerous well before federal troops and armored vehicles come to Seattle. In the case of migrants, labor activists, and student protestors, the danger is already here.
So, is all of this one long build-up to tell ourselves that we should panic? No, absolutely not.
If tomorrow sets a new high-water mark on the potential for tensions boiling over into violence, panic and fear will help no one. A more productive use of our time is a careful reassessment of our individual threat models and tolerances for risk.
Most importantly, it will take extra attention on what our elected officials, law enforcement and local communities have to say about this event. The first major conservative rally of the year turning bad will be a hot topic no matter where one lives. The range of responses and the ensuing justifications, from news media to our next door neighbors, will set a new tone in politics across the country.
References
https://www.maydayusa.co/seattle
https://www.hervoicemvmt.com/declaration
https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Advocare.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/@jennydonnellyofficial
https://www.hervoicemvmt.com/hvm-family-circle
https://media.spokesman.com/documents/2018/10/Biblical_Basis_for_War.pdf
https://pastormattshea.com/truth/
https://spokaneonfire.churchcenter.com/calendar/event/179568796
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/her-voice-movement-jenny-donnelly-ziklag-trump
https://www.kuow.org/stories/why-defund-the-police-has-become-the-rallying-cry-at-seattle-protests
https://theappeal.org/jenny-durkan-seattle/
https://www.kuow.org/stories/unanswered-letters-buried-reports-critics-say-spd-response-on-crowd-control-is-overdue
https://www.kuow.org/stories/police-departments-search-for-political-extremism-in-ranks-following-capitol-riot
https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-names-anonymous-capitol-insurrection-01d1b6115c8b6529e74bbaf90a332239
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/07/02/2020-14509/protecting-american-monuments-memorials-and-statues-and-combating-recent-criminal-violence
https://www.dhs.gov/archive/news/2020/07/21/portland-riots-read-out-july-21
https://mynorthwest.com/ktth/ktth-opinion/rantz-seattle-mayor-bruce-harrell-illegal-immigrations-trump-sanctuary-city/4021284